Skift just published this article "Cheaper Airfares Are Great for Flyers, Terrible for the Environment" which appears to contradict my optimistic statement "the days of cheap travel are over" unless we remember that in the real world of interdependencies, what's cheap for some could prove very expensive for all of us.
Perhaps a more appropriate and accurate headline should have been Cheaper Airfares Were Great for Flyers, Terrible for the Environment.
I share your view that rising fuel prices are inevitable and believe airlines are in for a very bumpy ride. see: Is the Aviation Industry Broken Beyond Repair. Given declining razor thin margins and termination to solve the problem by scaling up, what chance is there that they will ever be able to consider anything other than the pursuit of growth.
Thank you Matt for uploading this. I appreciate your support. I would love to "use" work with out bounding more but have to confess to being overwhelmed with all the different communication channels. I am trying to write "the book"/ "a book (!) pulling all my thoughts together in one piece and since it touches on so many subjects that's proving overwhelming too. Can we have a skype discussion. I'd appreciate your advice.
Great topic and conversation Ron. I've been an enthusiastic proponent of peer to peer in tourism because to me it represents a fine example of how technology can support true hospitality (people welcoming people); enable a destination to accommodate more guests without having more bricks and mortar (it's efficient); satisfy a market niche; and spread the benefits more widely.
I've also long advocated that destinations support their residents (i.e. the host community) attract and, in some, but not all cases, accommodate them too. Most large cities have huge ethnic populations. Why not make the tools available to these groups to spread the word about their new home. It solves the language and culture issue because the hosts know what their peers "back home" would find most attractive. I tried promoting this in Canada a few years ago but the technology was too new.
It just takes a different mindset and defining a destination as more than fee-paying members of a CVB/DMO. I am NOT saying there aren't issues and some problems - name me an initiative that doesn't have one?
No one objected to VRBO (Vacations rentals by owner) because like Craigslist it didn't look and act as a threat but they did enable good business to happen. No one objects to farmer's markets - not even the big supermarkets because they know it's a niche.
Sonja - I agree 100%. If DMOs had understood the dynamics of the market and the fact that more people wanted to meet and be looked after by real people not people with a job description and a business card title, they could create a peer-to-peer offer. But then DMOs were perfectly positioned to lead the destination web site business and they let that opportunity pass until it was too late to lead.
Ron - good luck on your search.
Forgive me if this sounds like a rant - it's just that I am tired of seeing what could have been when it comes to DMOs. And it looks as if I am in supportive company - I'm ranting/preaching to the choir!!
Thanks for posting my report on Climate Change but it's rather dated (2007) so I would early recommend folks read the latest summary of Climate Change Implications from Cambridge University as presented in my most recent post because it doesn't pull many punches and reflects current thinking (2014).
John you are completely right - nearly all industry growth forecasts/targets are at some point driven off global growth forecasts which are linear projections of past performance that pay insufficient attention to the underlying change dynamics. The operating conditions for tourism going forward will be much harsher - higher input costs, more regulation, more disruption, diminishing returns and less customer satisfaction. Volume growth may occur but net benefit per trip will, in my opinion, decline for most participants.
And Matthew you too are right to suggest the challenge is deeper than climate change. We need to come up with an operating model for a visitor economy that produces tangible net benefits for all participants while respecting planetary boundaries and part of that will, in many (but not all )destinations, mean giving serious attention to the question "when is enough, enough?"
While I recognise, accept and respect the biophysical limits that exist in Nature, I am less inclined to limit our capacity as humans to adapt and change. The promotion and growth of Consumerism is now being questioned in every country, every sphere of human endeavour and across all age, ethnic and demographic groups. It too is symptomatic of a deep shift in consciousness that is occurring as humanity wakes us to the fact that our economies and societies are dependent on a healthy natural environment. Yes, the majority of the global tourism market (I would guess 70%) is still buying products and using price as a primary determinant of selection because that's how mass tourism is sold. But the other 30% - conscious travellers are waking up very quickly and demanding higher standards. They are also more influential and set the trends.
If, as I suspect, the days of cheap travel are over, then suppliers that can appeal to the conscious traveller have the best chance of thriving going forward...